5% Mortgage Rates on the Horizon

Mortgage rates have been rising quickly over the past month. A year ago, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 3.18%. Last week, it averaged 4.67%, according to Freddie Mac.

Mortgage rates surged more than 90 basis points in March alone. And 5% mortgage rates may be here sooner than many housing analysts had originally predicted.

Several leading housing economists recently told MarketWatch that 30-year fixed rates may hit 5% within the next month, while others believe that landmark will come later this year.

“Even if rates slow their recent pace of increase, they’re likely to hit 5% by mid-year unless something big changes in the outlook,” Danielle Hale, realtor.com®’s chief economist, told MarketWatch.

Jeff Ostrowski, an analyst at Bankrate, told MarketWatch he believes 5% rates will arrive even sooner—sometime this spring.

Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of REALTORS®, says he believes the higher mortgage rates will cool the market somewhat in the coming months. “At a 5% rate, home sales this year may even fall by 10%,” he says.

But Hale is optimistic that buyer demand will remain strong. “We have a large generation of younger households, more than 45 million of whom are in prime household formation and home buying years of 26 to 35,” she told MarketWatch. “And while the monthly costs of buying are higher, the monthly costs of renting are also up, more than 17% in the last year. … Rising rents and higher costs of home buying have younger households hoping to move, stuck between a rock and a hard place.”

And even as mortgage rates climb, Yun does not expect home prices to turn negative. “Home prices are on firmer ground, even if mortgage rates rise to 6%, since the rents are rising strongly,” he told MarketWatch. Source: “‘Inevitable,’ in the Very Near Future.’ 4 Economists and Real Estate Pros on Exactly When Mortgage Rates Will Hit 5%,” MarketWatch (April 4, 2022)

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Hope for Weary Buyers

As the spring buying season kicks off, many aspiring home buyers may find themselves priced out and feel frustrated by the competition. Home prices are higher, as are mortgage rates. Bidding wars remain fierce.

But housing analysts say home buyers may soon see a change and a possible opening for those who’ve been frustrated by the competition and the soaring prices.

The signs may seem dim at the moment: Home buyers are paying about 30% more for a house than they would have just a year ago due to higher sales prices and mortgage rates, according to realtor.com®. Mortgage rates have risen by nearly a point and a half over the past year, which has increased borrowing costs. Mortgage rates, about 3% last year, are now pushing toward 5%.

Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of REALTORS®, recently said in a statement that “there will be an inevitable slowdown in home sales.” He said people should be watching homes’ days on the market and looking for a decrease in multiple offers as the earliest signs of the slowdown. “Home sellers should not expect big easy profit gains,” he says. But Yun also told MarketWatch that he doesn’t believe home prices will turn negative either.

Realtor.com® says home prices may initially rise over the next few weeks as some buyers rush to snatch up properties ahead of any further rate increases. But real estate experts believe that the huge run-up in prices may be nearing an end.

With higher mortgage rates, “housing is going to have to adjust,” says Danielle Hale, realtor.com®’s chief economist, who adds that she sees uncertainty on how the market will do so, though.

Economic matters are proving to be wild cards for the housing industry. The highest inflation in 40 years is hitting consumers’ pocketbooks. Sixty-two percent of Americans say that inflation has affected their spending, according to the Capital One Marketplace Index.

“Homebuyers have to be able to afford their mortgage payments and all of the other things in their budget, [which is] getting harder to do,” Hale says. Source: “Homebuyers, Take Heart: Prices Could Flatten—or Even Dip—This Year,” realtor.com® (April 6, 2022) and “Instant Reaction: Jobs, April 1, 2022,” National Association of REALTORS®

Yard Care Tips Heading Into Spring

Homeowners have been spending more time in their backyards since the pandemic began. For a growing share of owners, it’s become a new hobby or a place to relax. Sixty-nine percent of Americans recently surveyed say that doing yard work—either maintaining it or adding or updating features—is one of the ways they like to relieve stress these days, according to a Yards Study from Harris Poll.

“Over the last few years, families have used their yards more than ever before, and the Harris Poll indicates a vast majority of those who have a yard plan to invest even more in their yard in the coming year,” says Kris Kiser, president and CEO of the TurfMutt Foundation, which was created by the Outdoor Power Equipment Institute with a mission of teaching others how to “save the planet, one yard at a time.”

The 5 Biggest Yard and Patio Staging Mistakes

Baby Got Back(yard)! Maximize Your Outdoor Space

The TurfMutt Foundation offers the following tips for maintaining or enjoying a lawn or landscape this spring:

Plant more, early, and often. Adding trees, bushes, grass, and flowering plants can be a good yard investment, but they often take time to grow. Plant early as recommended to enjoy the benefits faster. Remember the golden rule of backyarding: right plant, right place. Location, maintenance, sunlight, and watering needs should all be considered, along with your climate zone.

Consider the full picture. Your yard is an important part of the connected ecosystem, and adding flowering plants, trees, and shrubs gives wildlife and pollinators food and shelter. Check your climate zone for landscaping options that support the birds, bees, butterflies, and other wildlife that call your neighborhood home.

Care for your yard properly. Only water when necessary. Overwatered grass gets lazy, growing roots in a horizontal pattern. With less water, grass sends its roots deeper—vertically—seeking water. By working harder, grass does a better job of sequestering carbon and releasing oxygen. Install watering solutions like smart controllers on irrigation systems that help conserve water while maintaining your backyard.

Also, find the just-right length to cut your turfgrass—typically between 2 and 3 inches, according to the TurfMutt Foundation. Source: TurfMutt Foundation

©National Association of REALTORS®
Reprinted with permission

Borrowing Costs Jump as Rates Continue to Increase

For the fourth consecutive week, mortgage rates surged, up more than 90 basis points in one month.

Rates have jumped from 3.76% to 4.67% in just March alone, significantly increasing the borrowing costs for buyers, Nadia Evangelou, senior economist and director of forecasting at the National Association of REALTORS®, wrote for the association’s blog.

The monthly payment for a median-priced home with a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose more than $170 in March due to higher rates, Evangelou notes.

In the past three months, that amount has been increasing even more. For example, LendingTree offers the following example: A 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage loan worth $300,000 would have cost a buyer about $1,283 a month with the average rate on Dec. 30, 2021, of 3.11%. But at the current average rate of 4.67%, that monthly cost has jumped to $1,551—an increase of $268 a month, $3,216 a year, and $96,480 over the lifetime of the loan.

Still, even with the latest jump in mortgage rates, borrowing costs do remain low by historical standards. From 2002 up until 2009, rates generally were between 5% and 6.5%, LendingTree notes.

However, buyers are facing higher asking prices for homes, and rates are projected to continue inching up.

“Mortgage rates continued moving upward in the face of rapidly rising inflation as well as the prospect of strong demand for goods and ongoing supply disruptions,” says Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “Purchase demand has weakened modestly but has continued to outpace expectations. This is largely due to unmet demand from first-time homebuyers as well as a select few who had been waiting for rates to hit a cyclical low.”

Freddie Mac reports the following national averages with mortgage rates for the week ending March 31:

• 30-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 4.67%, with an average 0.8 points, rising from last week’s 4.42%. Last year at this time, 30-year rates averaged 3.18%.
• 15-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 3.83%, with an average 0.8 points, up from last week’s 3.63% average. A year ago at this time, 15-year rates averaged 2.45%.
• 5-year hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages: averaged 3.50%, with an average 0.3 points, up from last week’s 3.36%. A year ago, 5-year ARMS averaged 2.84%.

Freddie Mac reports commitment rates along with average points to better reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Source: Freddie Mac and “Instant Reaction: Mortgage Rates, March 31, 2022,” National Association of REALTORS® Economists’ Outlook blog

©National Association of REALTORS®
Reprinted with permission

Listing Prices Hit Highest Median Ever

Listing prices rose to a median of $405,000 in March, an all-time high, according to realtor.com®’s latest Monthly Housing Trends Report. However, economists say that buyers may soon see relief with expectations of more inventory coming that could help relieve some of the pricing pressures.

Housing inventory is expected to hit positive territory year over year this summer, according to realtor.com®’s report.

“Despite the $405,000 price tag, March data reveals we are starting to take some steps toward a more balanced market,” says Danielle Hale, realtor.com®’s chief economist. “Buyer demand is moderating in the face of high costs, and we’re beginning to see more homeowners take price cuts on their listings and overall inventory declines lessen in response. Assuming all these factors and new construction hold steady, we could begin to see inventory increases this summer—welcome news for buyers who have endured pandemic home shopping and can continue their journey despite higher buying costs.”

But buyers currently in the market remain eager to find a home in the hopes of locking in lower borrowing costs ahead of further mortgage rate increases. Homes are still selling fast: The typical home spent 38 days on the market in March, which is 11 days less than a year ago, according to realtor.com®.

Even with buyer demand remaining high, sellers are finding buyers do have limits to what they’ll pay. Price reductions are increasing in some markets: 25 of the largest 50 metros saw an increase in price reductions in March, compared to 18 in February. The share of homes having their price reduced in March rose slightly to 6% compared to 5.8% a year ago, realtor.com® reports. Still, price reductions remain 9 percentage points below what’s considered more normal levels for the market.

Metro Breakdown of List Prices

The following markets posted the highest year-over-year median list price growth in March:

• Miami: 37%
• Las Vegas: 35.2%
• Tampa, Fla.: 32%

Source: Move Inc.

©National Association of REALTORS®
Reprinted with permission

Big Ask for Housing in Biden Budget

President Joe Biden requested historic funding for housing supply in his federal budget proposal for the fiscal year that begins October 1, 2022. The proposal was released Monday.

A requested 34% increase over last year for the Department of Housing and Urban Development includes $50 billion in grants and loans to increase the supply of affordable housing. This amount includes $32 billion for the Housing Choice Voucher Program and nearly $2 billion in funding for the HOME Investment Partnership to create more affordable homeownership opportunities.

“This unprecedented investment demonstrates how seriously the White House views the supply crisis,” says Shannon McGahn, NAR’s chief advocacy officer. “We worked with the administration and Congress over the past year on comprehensive policy proposals, and now a consensus is growing across Washington that decisive action is needed.”

In 2021, NAR commissioned a landmark report on housing supply, which confirmed a shortage of nearly 6 million residential housing units nationwide. “NAR’s report became the center of conversation on housing supply, and our policy recommendations are showing up in proposed legislation in Washington and around the country,” McGahn says.

To close the supply gap, NAR supports new funding for affordable housing construction, preserving and expanding tax incentives to renovate distressed properties, converting unused commercial space to residential, and encouraging and incentivizing zoning reform.

The proposal now moves to Congress.

“A president’s budget is a wish list of policy goals and ambitions,” McGahn explains. “Many changes will be made to this plan, but it is good news that the White House sees this issue for what it is—a crisis—and many in Congress on both sides of the aisle agree. The next step is that Congress will hold hearings on this budget proposal. We will continue to work with lawmakers and encourage an all-hands approach to the supply shortage so that the American dream is achievable for all Americans.”

NAR’s policy team is analyzing Biden’s full $5.8 trillion budget request and will have a comprehensive write-up on nar.realtor.

©National Association of REALTORS®
Reprinted with permission

Affordable Places to Buy a Vacation Home

Vacation homes remain a popular pandemic trend. More Americans have been warming up to the idea of being untethered from jobs with remote work and experiencing a growing desire for a family getaway home or potential rental revenue stream. Vacation homes remain in demand.

But home prices have skyrocketed. Are more buyers becoming priced out of the second-home market? The number of vacation-home sales has fallen 15% so far this year compared to last year, according to realtor.com®. But that may be more from dwindling for-sale options than an indication of lessening demand.

Realtor.com®’s research team recently identified some vacation markets that offer affordability. However, the markets may not have the familiar names of Cape Cod or Lake Tahoe, they say.

“We’ve seen rising demand for homes in vacation destinations within a three-hour drive of major metro areas, especially in mountain and waterfront areas where people can be outdoors and there’s less [population] density,” Daned Kirkham, senior director of real estate at the vocational rental management firm Vacasa, told realtor.com®. “Even as urban markets have seen tourism return, the popularity of the off-the-beaten-path getaways hasn’t wavered.”

The median sales price for a vacation home was $429,000 in February. But in some markets, buyers are finding prices that cost much less but still offer a vacation getaway. Here are some of the most affordable towns in the U.S. for a vacation home, according to realtor.com®:

1. Branson, Mo.

• Median second-home purchase price: $299,000

2. East Stroudsburg, Pa.

• Median second-home purchase price: $299,500

3. Whitewater, Wis.

• Median second-home purchase price: $314,000

4. Myrtle Beach, S.C.

• Median second-home purchase price: $341,000

5. Cullowhee, N.C.

• Median second-home purchase price: $365,750

6. The Villages, Fla.

• Median second-home purchase price: $378,690

7. Lake Havasu City, Ariz.

• Median second-home purchase price: $383,210

View the full list and more about each town at realtor.com®. Source: “Here Are the 10 Towns in America Where You Can Still Buy an Affordable (and Great) Vacation Home,” realtor.com® (March 28, 2022)

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Reprinted with permission

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Ways Buyers Can Sweeten Their Offers

Competition is growing more intense heading into the spring season’s busy buying market. Buyers will continue to compete for a limited number of homes for sale. Real estate professionals recently discussed with realtor.com® how their buyers are getting their offers on a home to stand out, besides increasing the amount they’re willing to pay.

Boost your earnest money.

Home sellers may look more favorably on a buyer’s offer that has more skin in the game. Earnest money is usually about 1% to 3% after an offer is accepted. “Buyers can get a leg up by putting down more earnest money and making a portion, if not all of it, guaranteed,” Mike Opyd, managing broker and owner of Chicago’s RE/MAX Next, told realtor.com®. “Yes, this means the sellers get to keep the money if the deal falls apart for any reason at any time. However, it makes a buyer look a lot more committed to doing whatever it takes.”

Add in a leaseback.

Home sellers are increasingly facing a problem of their own: not being able to find a home to move into after quickly selling their property. Buyers can offer a leaseback that allows the home seller more time to find a new place. “If the seller is living in the property, the buyer can offer to lease it back for 60 to 90 days, at no charge, to allow them time to find their next place,” Glen Pizzolorusso, an associate broker with Compass in Fairfield County, Conn., told realtor.com®. Read more about these add-ons: What If Your Sellers Have Nowhere to Go?

Consider an escalation clause.

This contract addendum can be used when a bidding war is likely. It will increase the buyer’s offer amount if the seller receives multiple offers that increase the amount of the most likely successful offer. It will raise a buyer’s offer if competitive bids roll in. But real estate professionals are torn on this tactic as it does tip the buyer’s hand on how much their client is ultimately willing to pay. Still, if a buyer is really willing to pay more for a home, an escalation clause could give them flexibility if other bids come in, and they wouldn’t lose out on a purchase because the first amount in their offers was lower than the maximum they would have been willing to pay.

View four more ways buyers can better compete this spring. Source: “7 Secrets No One Tells You That’ll Help You Buy a House Right Now,” realtor.com® (March 23, 2022)

©National Association of REALTORS®
Reprinted with permission