{"id":25309,"date":"2025-10-16T16:08:52","date_gmt":"2025-10-16T16:08:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.anthonydidonato.net\/wordpress\/?p=25309"},"modified":"2025-10-16T16:08:53","modified_gmt":"2025-10-16T16:08:53","slug":"yun-2025-outlook-a-soft-landing-more-likely-than-a-crash","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.anthonydidonato.net\/wordpress\/yun-2025-outlook-a-soft-landing-more-likely-than-a-crash\/","title":{"rendered":"Yun 2025 Outlook: A Soft Landing More Likely Than a Crash"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>With ongoing concerns about interest rates and housing affordability, many fear a looming recession. But Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of REALTORS\u00ae, suggests that if a downturn happens, it\u2019s likely to be mild \u2014 not severe. Here\u2019s his outlook for the housing market and broader economy as we move through 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Current Economic Picture (2025)<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Existing home sales are expected to increase by about 6% in 2025 and another 11% in 2026.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>New-home sales are projected to rise by 10% in 2025 and 5% in 2026.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Mortgage rates are forecast to average around 6.4% in the second half of 2025, with a slight drop to about 6.1% in 2026.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Home prices are anticipated to grow by roughly 3% in 2025 and 4% in 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>While these numbers reflect optimism, they are more cautious than earlier forecasts due to continued affordability challenges and fluctuating mortgage rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What\u2019s Supporting the Market Right Now<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yun points to several key factors that could help keep the housing market and broader economy from sliding into a deeper recession:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. <strong>A Resilient Labor Market<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Job growth has slowed but remains solid. Unemployment remains low, and wage growth is moderate \u2014 giving many consumers the ability to remain active in the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2. <strong>Gradual Improvement in Housing Supply<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>More listings and new construction are starting to appear, which can relieve pressure on prices and help balance supply with demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3. <strong>Mortgage Rate Stabilization<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>If mortgage rates level off or decline slightly in late 2025, that could ease affordability pressures and bring more buyers back into the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4. <strong>Homeowner Equity as a Safety Net<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Unlike the 2008 crisis, today\u2019s homeowners typically have strong equity positions. That reduces the risk of widespread foreclosures or distressed selling, helping maintain market stability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Risks to Watch in 2025<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Even if the outlook is relatively stable, there are still risks that could weigh on the market:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Further spikes in mortgage rates<\/strong> could push more buyers out of the market.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Affordability remains tight<\/strong>, especially for first-time buyers.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Inflation or policy shifts<\/strong> could keep interest rates higher for longer than expected.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Some local markets<\/strong> may see sharper corrections based on overbuilding or reduced demand.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Consumer confidence<\/strong> could waver if economic uncertainty grows in other sectors.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Why a Mild Downturn Is the Most Likely Path<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yun\u2019s overall assessment is that the U.S. housing market and economy are slowing \u2014 but not in freefall. His reasons include:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>We&#8217;re not coming off a speculative housing bubble like in past downturns.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Job growth and consumer spending are still active.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Inventory is improving slowly, but not enough to crash prices.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Policy responses and stronger consumer financial health may cushion any deeper slide.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>This suggests a period of adjustment, not a crash.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Key Indicators to Monitor This Year<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>To gauge whether Yun\u2019s predictions play out, keep an eye on:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Mortgage rates and how they trend into 2026<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Home sales volume and pending contracts<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Housing starts, permits, and builder confidence<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Regional inventory trends and buyer activity<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Employment numbers and consumer spending behavior<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Bottom Line<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yun\u2019s 2025 forecast points toward a \u201csoft landing\u201d \u2014 slower market activity, stable prices, and gradual recovery. While affordability and interest rates are major hurdles, solid job numbers, better supply, and equity-rich homeowners all serve as stabilizers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For buyers, sellers, and investors, this means opportunity still exists \u2014 especially for well-priced, move-in-ready homes in desirable areas. Staying informed and prepared will be the key to making smart real estate decisions in this transitional market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Source:<\/strong> REALTOR\u00ae Magazine<br \/>\u201cYun: Possible Economic Downturn Likely to Be Mild\u201d<br \/>National Association of REALTORS\u00ae<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With ongoing concerns about interest rates and housing affordability, many fear a looming recession. But Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of REALTORS\u00ae, suggests that if a downturn happens, it\u2019s likely to be mild \u2014 not severe. Here\u2019s his outlook for the housing market and broader economy as we move through 2025. The &hellip; <\/p>\n<p><a class=\"more-link btn\" href=\"https:\/\/www.anthonydidonato.net\/wordpress\/yun-2025-outlook-a-soft-landing-more-likely-than-a-crash\/\">Continue reading<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[16,8],"tags":[5,32,4,9],"class_list":["post-25309","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","category-real-estate-tips","tag-anthony-didonato","tag-news","tag-real-estate","tag-tips","item-wrap"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Yun 2025 Outlook: A Soft Landing More Likely Than a Crash - Real Estate Agent and Sales in PA - Anthony DiDonato Broomall, Media, Delaware County and surrounding areas in Pennsylvania<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.anthonydidonato.net\/wordpress\/yun-2025-outlook-a-soft-landing-more-likely-than-a-crash\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.anthonydidonato.net\\\/wordpress\\\/yun-2025-outlook-a-soft-landing-more-likely-than-a-crash\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.anthonydidonato.net\\\/wordpress\\\/yun-2025-outlook-a-soft-landing-more-likely-than-a-crash\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"admin\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.anthonydidonato.net\\\/wordpress\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/964792b6994e8cc4cbddc36ad4824908\"},\"headline\":\"Yun 2025 Outlook: A Soft Landing More Likely Than a Crash\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-10-16T16:08:52+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-10-16T16:08:53+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.anthonydidonato.net\\\/wordpress\\\/yun-2025-outlook-a-soft-landing-more-likely-than-a-crash\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":583,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.anthonydidonato.net\\\/wordpress\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/964792b6994e8cc4cbddc36ad4824908\"},\"keywords\":[\"Anthony DiDonato\",\"News\",\"Real Estate\",\"tips\"],\"articleSection\":[\"News\",\"Real Estate Tips\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.anthonydidonato.net\\\/wordpress\\\/yun-2025-outlook-a-soft-landing-more-likely-than-a-crash\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.anthonydidonato.net\\\/wordpress\\\/yun-2025-outlook-a-soft-landing-more-likely-than-a-crash\\\/\",\"name\":\"Yun 2025 Outlook: A Soft Landing More Likely Than a Crash - 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Skilled, smart and enthusiastic about his work and his life, Anthony DiDonato has the appealing combination of business sense and people skills gives him an edge in an industry that demands both. Educated at Drexel University with a dual major in accounting and finance and minors in management and psychology Anthony DiDonato offers over 25 years of experience in the real estate industry. He has been a real estate investor since 1985 and a member of H.A.P.C.O. (Landlord Association). He became a licensed Realtor in 1992 and a member of the Local, Pennsylvania and National Associations of Realtors. Anthony DiDonato is also a member of the Computerized Multiple Listings, (MLS) and Internet Marketing Programs. In 1997 Anthony DiDonato became Century 21 All-Elite, Inc. Corporate Secretary. Anthony DiDonato believes in taking his profession to the highest level of quality service. 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Skilled, smart and enthusiastic about his work and his life, Anthony DiDonato has the appealing combination of business sense and people skills gives him an edge in an industry that demands both. Educated at Drexel University with a dual major in accounting and finance and minors in management and psychology Anthony DiDonato offers over 25 years of experience in the real estate industry. He has been a real estate investor since 1985 and a member of H.A.P.C.O. (Landlord Association). He became a licensed Realtor in 1992 and a member of the Local, Pennsylvania and National Associations of Realtors. Anthony DiDonato is also a member of the Computerized Multiple Listings, (MLS) and Internet Marketing Programs. In 1997 Anthony DiDonato became Century 21 All-Elite, Inc. Corporate Secretary. Anthony DiDonato believes in taking his profession to the highest level of quality service. He is known for finding that \u201cperfect\u201d property in Philadelphia, Delaware County, Chester County, Montgomery County and surrounding areas in Pennsylvania for his buyers and helping his sellers prepare their properties so they sell quickly and efficiently. When it comes time to negotiate the terms of a contract, Anthony DiDonato has the knowledge, experience, and professionalism applied to meeting \u2013 or exceeding \u2013 his clients\u2019 expectations. His service to his clients is second to none. His honesty and integrity have been his claim to fame. 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