{"id":20887,"date":"2022-08-15T14:52:13","date_gmt":"2022-08-15T14:52:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.anthonydidonato.net\/wordpress\/?p=20887"},"modified":"2022-08-15T14:52:14","modified_gmt":"2022-08-15T14:52:14","slug":"possible-economic-downturn-likely-to-be-mild","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.anthonydidonato.net\/wordpress\/possible-economic-downturn-likely-to-be-mild\/","title":{"rendered":"Possible Economic Downturn Likely to Be Mild"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Possible Economic Downturn Likely to Be Mild<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The country isn\u2019t officially in a recession yet, despite two consecutive quarters of national contraction of the gross domestic product, a commonly cited indicator of an economic downturn, says Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of REALTORS\u00ae. And several healthy economic trends, including a robust job market, coupled with new efforts to boost affordable housing could stave off a more serious slump, Yun adds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

New guidance from the Treasury enabling state and local governments to use leftover emergency COVID-19 funding from the American Rescue Plan to create affordable housing should help ease the inventory crisis and counteract the effects of a tightening economy. Still, there are questions about whether the U.S. has entered \u201cstagflation,\u201d a period of high inflation combined with an economic slowdown, as many Americans feel the frustrating effects of a slower economy and higher consumer prices. But the National Bureau of Economic Research, the council that watches over U.S. business cycles, has yet to declare a recession, Yun notes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are two major factors at work counteracting current economic conditions:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  1. Job creation is robust. Total payroll jobs were over 150 million in early 2020 before the onset of the pandemic, Yun said at NAR\u2019s Real Estate Forecast Summit<\/a> last week. While COVID-19 shutdowns precipitated a steep decline in jobs, each month showed strong job creation after the restrictions were lifted. Though there is variation across the country, Yun says, the job market has largely recovered. \u201cWe are essentially at the same level of jobs and W-2 employment now compared to pre-COVID days,\u201d he said. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that right now, there are more job openings than unemployed people. As of June, there were 5.9 million workers searching for jobs and over 10 million job openings. So, while high unemployment typically characterizes a recession, \u201cthe ratio [today] is almost two to one,\u201d Yun said. \u201cIt\u2019s a very unusual recession\u2014if we are in one.\u201d<\/li>
  2. Commercial real estate is growing. Though a recession typically means bad news for commercial properties, the commercial market as a whole is flourishing despite a stagnant office sector, Yun writes in a recent REALTOR\u00ae Magazine column<\/a>. Rental demand is booming, and rents are up significantly. Demand for warehouse space has surged as retailers stock up to avoid supply chain disruptions. Hotel bookings, air travel and park attendance are now above pre-pandemic levels. All of this increased activity has led to high demand for new commercial construction. \u201cThe improving construction sector means that any recession will be mild,\u201d Yun said.<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Despite the positive economic signs, falling homes sales remain a concern. \u201cHome sales are down largely because mortgage rates have risen sharply,\u201d Yun said at last week\u2019s event. \u201cIf interest rates rise further, then home sales will decline even more\u2014even if there is no recession.\u201d One long-term solution is to increase housing supply, which is why the Treasury\u2019s announcement is meaningful. The change in ARP guidance could mean significantly more funds going to housing supply and a reduction in costs for buyers over time. Another factor that will help in the short term is employers finding a way to match workers to openings and fill jobs, Yun said. \u201cWe still need workers. In an environment with rising mortgage rates, what will drive homes sales is jobs.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u00a9National Association of REALTORS\u00ae
    Reprinted with permission<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Possible Economic Downturn Likely to Be Mild The country isn\u2019t officially in a recession yet, despite two consecutive quarters of national contraction of the gross domestic product, a commonly cited indicator of an economic downturn, says Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of REALTORS\u00ae. And several healthy economic trends, including a robust job … <\/p>\n

    Continue reading<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[16,8],"tags":[5,32,4,9],"class_list":["post-20887","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","category-real-estate-tips","tag-anthony-didonato","tag-news","tag-real-estate","tag-tips","item-wrap"],"yoast_head":"\nPossible Economic Downturn Likely to Be Mild - Real Estate Agent and Sales in PA - Anthony DiDonato Broomall, Media, Delaware County and surrounding areas in Pennsylvania<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.anthonydidonato.net\/wordpress\/possible-economic-downturn-likely-to-be-mild\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.anthonydidonato.net\\\/wordpress\\\/possible-economic-downturn-likely-to-be-mild\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.anthonydidonato.net\\\/wordpress\\\/possible-economic-downturn-likely-to-be-mild\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"admin\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.anthonydidonato.net\\\/wordpress\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/964792b6994e8cc4cbddc36ad4824908\"},\"headline\":\"Possible Economic Downturn Likely to Be Mild\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-08-15T14:52:13+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-08-15T14:52:14+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.anthonydidonato.net\\\/wordpress\\\/possible-economic-downturn-likely-to-be-mild\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":573,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.anthonydidonato.net\\\/wordpress\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/964792b6994e8cc4cbddc36ad4824908\"},\"keywords\":[\"Anthony DiDonato\",\"News\",\"Real Estate\",\"tips\"],\"articleSection\":[\"News\",\"Real Estate Tips\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.anthonydidonato.net\\\/wordpress\\\/possible-economic-downturn-likely-to-be-mild\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.anthonydidonato.net\\\/wordpress\\\/possible-economic-downturn-likely-to-be-mild\\\/\",\"name\":\"Possible Economic Downturn Likely to Be Mild - 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