Aug 29

What Lies Ahead for Housing and the Real Estate Market

Strong Underlying Demand

2023 saw existing-home sales hit their lowest levels in nearly three decades, largely because homeowners were locked into ultra-low mortgage rates, housing inventory was scarce, and interest rates were climbing. Yet, when viewed through a broader lens, the picture changes: 4 million existing-home sales in 2023 equaled the total from 1995, despite the U.S. population being notably smaller back then. This reveals a wellspring of pent-up housing demand that could potentially fuel robust sales over the next eight out of ten years.

Emerging Signs of Recovery

The market may already be turning a corner. In February (year unspecified), existing-home sales surged 9.5% month-over-month—adjusted for seasonality and a leap year—backed by a 10% boost in inventory. Still, the Northeast bucked the trend: sales fell by 10%, though prices rose—likely a result of ongoing supply constraints and pursuing multiple-offer scenarios.

The Settlement’s Role: A Wildcard

A court‑pending settlement—aimed at changing how buyers and sellers approach agent compensation—adds a wildcard element to the outlook. The proposal would retain consumer choice by allowing compensation off‑MLS while encouraging cooperative agreements between listing and buyer brokers. Its full impact remains uncertain, but NAR anticipates that if listing agents effectively communicate the benefits of cooperation (like attracting more buyers), sellers may continue to see value in such arrangements—especially for first-time, underrepresented, or veteran homebuyers

A Glimpse Into the Future

  • Market Momentum is Building
    With historical demand and inventory gains combining, the potential is there for a sustained rise in home sales.
  • Regional Variability Will Persist
    Gains won’t be uniform—Northern markets like the Northeast might still lag due to supply issues and stronger competition.
  • Settlement Could Reshape Agent Engagement
    If embraced, the new commission structure might empower buyers while keeping cooperative brokerage models viable—especially if agents highlight clear value.

Source: REALTOR® Magazine
“What Will the Future Bring?”
National Association of REALTORS®
Reprinted with permission

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