The market has mostly priced in current and future Fed actions, so mortgage rates shouldn’t rise dramatically, says NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.

With skyrocketing inflation and mounting recession fears, the Federal Reserve made another aggressive move Wednesday, raising its benchmark rate by three-quarters of a percentage point for the second time this year to try and tame the economy. However, higher mortgage rates may not necessarily be on the horizon as a result, says Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of REALTORS®.

“This is unlikely to do any further damage to mortgage rates,” Yun says. “The long-term bond market on which mortgage rates are generally priced has mostly priced in all future actions by the Fed and may have already peaked with the 10-year Treasury shooting up 3.5% in mid-June.” The Treasury was at 2.8% following the Fed’s decision.

“It is possible that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage may settle down at 5.5% to 6% for the remainder of the year,” Yun says. “Still, mortgage rates are significantly higher now compared to one year ago, which is why home sales have been falling.”

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has doubled over the past year. Last week, rates averaged 5.54%, up from 2.78% a year ago, according to Freddie Mac.

Mortgage Rates Become Housing’s Wild Card

The Fed warned on Wednesday that more hikes to its short-term benchmark rate are likely to come. “As the Fed continues to march forward with rate increases aimed at countering inflation, the path for mortgage rates is less well-defined,” says Ruben Gonzalez, chief economist at Keller Williams.

Some economists believe mortgage rates may even fall following the Fed’s action on Wednesday. “The Fed meeting is more likely to bring about lower mortgage rates than higher mortgage rates as long-term rates respond to growing recession worries,” says Greg McBride, Bankrate’s chief financial analyst.

The housing market has slowed dramatically as home buyers face the double-whammy of rising mortgage rates and record-high home prices. NAR’s latest housing data shows the slowdown: Contract signings are down 20% year over year, existing-home sales have fallen 14%, and new-home sales are at their lowest level since April 2020. If mortgage rates could stabilize near current levels, future home sales would likely then be dependent on jobs and consumer confidence, Yun notes. “Therefore, home sales could soon stabilize within a few months and then steadily turn upwards from early next year,” Yun says. NAR has updated its forecast and is predicting home sales to fall by 13% in 2022 and start to rise in early 2023.

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A housing slowdown precipitated by low inventory and rising mortgage rates will open opportunities for some buyers, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun predicts.

Even though national GDP contracted for the second quarter in a row and home sales have fallen for five straight months, property prices are likely to continue growing because of low inventory, Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of REALTORS®, said Wednesday during NAR’s quarterly Real Estate Forecast Summit. Yun offered his economic and housing market predictions for the remainder of this year and into 2023 at the event.

One of the most unusual aspects of the current economy is the labor market, Yun said. There were more job openings than unemployed people in May—with the difference being nearly two to one, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Construction job openings were at a record high in January, and these unfilled jobs point to a potential slowdown in the housing market, Yun said.

Both existing-home sales and pending home sales have been falling or stagnant for months, NAR data shows. Rising mortgage rates have combined with low inventory to exert downward pressure on the market. “Closing activity will continue to sink even more,” said Yun. “Some [potential home buyers] don’t want to pay higher monthly rates. Others can’t.”

Hope for Consumers

There are bright spots in the market, such as gradually increasing inventory, which is good news for consumers. “They no longer have to make an offer after seeing only one [house],” Yun said. “They can see three or four. It’s returning to a normal process.”

Despite some homes with high list prices beginning to languish on the market, the overall lack of inventory is still leading to price gains. “Even after reductions, prices are still higher compared to one year ago and much higher compared to before the pandemic,” Yun added.

Though the Federal Reserve is expected to hike interest rates several more times this year, Yun said mortgage rates won’t rise much further because lenders have already priced in the potential increases. This can mean increased opportunity for consumers. “We may be topping out independent of what the Fed will do,” Yun said. “Rates will go a little up and a little down. It may be a good idea to lock in when the rates are down.”

He also noted that foreign investment in U.S. real estate is still well short of pre-pandemic levels but predicted that international interest is likely to increase as travel restrictions ease.

Finally, Yun predicted that in 2022, total home sales will be down 13% from the previous year, home prices will be up 11% and total dollar volume will be down 2%. For 2023, he predicted no increase in home sales, a 2% hike in prices and a 2% increase in dollar volume.

Current Trends and Market Opportunities

Jessica Lautz, NAR’s vice president of demographics and behavioral insight, also provided data from the June REALTORS® Confidence Index. Among her key findings:

• Median days on market for homes nationwide hit a record low of 14.
• The average number of offers per property dipped to 3 from a previous high of 5.
• Approximately 30% of buyers are waiving inspection and appraisal contingencies—a number that has held fairly steady since the start of the pandemic.
• The share of all-cash buyers currently stands at 25%. This number has actually decreased from a high of 35% in 2014.
• First-time buyers are still being sidelined and make up 30% of the market. Historically, they make up around 40%.

In addition, Lautz offered five “touch points”—opportunities for REALTORS® to reach out to clients in the current climate.

1. Twelve percent of buyers are purchasing homes virtually—and they want a REALTOR® to assist with the process.
2. Remote work continues to influence buying trends: 34% of buyers want features that enable them to work from home.
3. Consumers continue to have a skewed view of the typical amount required for a down payment. Thirty-five percent of buyers believe a down payment of 16% to 20% is required; 10% of buyers believe they need a down payment of more than 20%. However, the typical down payment for a first-time buyer is only 6% to 7%. For a repeat buyer, it’s 17%.
4. There is value in promoting energy efficiency in listings: Forty-four percent of REALTORS® say it’s “somewhat valuable,” and 19% say it’s “very valuable.”
5. Seven in 10 buyers report a desire for the latest in heating and cooling, windows and doors, insulation, lighting and appliances; however, the typical home purchased is 29 years old and unlikely to have the newest features. This disconnect presents an opportunity for REALTORS® to contact previous clients about satisfaction with their current home and any improvements they have made.

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Reprinted with permission

A contracting economy typically means a recession, but other economic indicators are likely to mitigate the effects of the slowing economy, says NAR’s chief economist.

The country isn’t officially in a recession yet, despite two consecutive quarters of national contraction of the gross domestic product, a commonly cited indicator of an economic downturn, says Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of REALTORS®. And several healthy economic trends, including a robust job market, coupled with new efforts to boost affordable housing could stave off a more serious slump, Yun adds.

New guidance from the Treasury enabling state and local governments to use leftover emergency COVID-19 funding from the American Rescue Plan to create affordable housing should help ease the inventory crisis and counteract the effects of a tightening economy. Still, there are questions about whether the U.S. has entered “stagflation,” a period of high inflation combined with an economic slowdown, as many Americans feel the frustrating effects of a slower economy and higher consumer prices. But the National Bureau of Economic Research, the council that watches over U.S. business cycles, has yet to declare a recession, Yun notes.

There are two major factors at work counteracting current economic conditions:

1. Job creation is robust. Total payroll jobs were over 150 million in early 2020 before the onset of the pandemic, Yun said at NAR’s Real Estate Forecast Summit last week. While COVID-19 shutdowns precipitated a steep decline in jobs, each month showed strong job creation after the restrictions were lifted. Though there is variation across the country, Yun says, the job market has largely recovered. “We are essentially at the same level of jobs and W-2 employment now compared to pre-COVID days,” he said. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that right now, there are more job openings than unemployed people. As of June, there were 5.9 million workers searching for jobs and over 10 million job openings. So, while high unemployment typically characterizes a recession, “the ratio [today] is almost two to one,” Yun said. “It’s a very unusual recession—if we are in one.”
2. Commercial real estate is growing. Though a recession typically means bad news for commercial properties, the commercial market as a whole is flourishing despite a stagnant office sector, Yun writes in a recent REALTOR® Magazine column. Rental demand is booming, and rents are up significantly. Demand for warehouse space has surged as retailers stock up to avoid supply chain disruptions. Hotel bookings, air travel and park attendance are now above pre-pandemic levels. All of this increased activity has led to high demand for new commercial construction. “The improving construction sector means that any recession will be mild,” Yun said.

Despite the positive economic signs, falling homes sales remain a concern. “Home sales are down largely because mortgage rates have risen sharply,” Yun said at last week’s event. “If interest rates rise further, then home sales will decline even more—even if there is no recession.” One long-term solution is to increase housing supply, which is why the Treasury’s announcement is meaningful. The change in ARP guidance could mean significantly more funds going to housing supply and a reduction in costs for buyers over time. Another factor that will help in the short term is employers finding a way to match workers to openings and fill jobs, Yun said. “We still need workers. In an environment with rising mortgage rates, what will drive homes sales is jobs.”

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The average monthly mortgage payment has fallen 12% reduction in just two months as high borrowing costs moderate, says NAR Chief Economist.

After weeks of escalating borrowing costs, home buyers are getting a second chance to lock in lower rates. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to an average just below 5% for the week ending Aug. 4, Freddie Mac reports.

With rates dipping in recent days, mortgage applications are increasing for the first time in five weeks, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported this week. Applications for a home purchase increased 1% last week following weeks of declines as home buyers and refinancers got spooked by higher mortgage rates.

Will the latest lower rates stick around? “Mortgage rates remained volatile due to the tug of war between inflationary pressures and a clear slowdown in economic growth,” says Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “The high uncertainty surrounding inflation and other factors will likely cause rates to remain variable, especially as the Federal Reserve attempts to navigate the current economic environment.”

Last week, National Association of REALTORS® Chief Economist Lawrence Yun predicted that the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise its short-term fed funds rate by 75 basis points was unlikely to do any further damage to mortgage rates. “The mortgage and longer-term bond markets have settled down in recent weeks,” Yun says. “The peak in mortgage rates may have already occurred. That’s because oil and gasoline prices have been falling lately and, hence, will lessen broader inflationary pressures. Lower inflation means less aggressive interest rates by the Federal Reserve.”

Any decline in mortgage rates is likely relief to potential home buyers. “Though still higher than a year ago, the current rate of under 5% means around a 12% reduction in monthly payments compared to when mortgage rates peaked at 6% just two months ago,” Yun says. “Mortgage rates could soon turn upward but are unlikely to retouch the 6% mark. Any dip should be viewed as a second-chance opportunity.”

Freddie Mac reports the following national averages with mortgage rates for the week ending Aug. 4:

• 30-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 4.99%, with an average 0.8 point, dropping from last week’s 5.30% average. Last year at this time, 30-year rates averaged 2.77%.
• 15-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 4.26%, with an average 0.6 point, falling from last week’s 4.58% average. A year ago, 15-year rates averaged 2.10%.
• 5-year hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages: averaged 4.25%, with an average 0.3 point, dropping from last week’s 4.29% average. A year ago, 5-year ARMs averaged 2.40%.

Freddie Mac reports commitment rates along with average points to better reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage.

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Reprinted with permission

Though weekly changes in borrowing costs are volatile, housing activity is reaching more balanced levels—which is ultimately good for buyers, says Freddie Mac’s chief economist.

Home buyers are having difficulty gauging opportunities to save on a property purchase as mortgage rates become more volatile. The average for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage swung above 5% again this week, clocking in at 5.22%, Freddie Mac reports. Last week, the average for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 4.99%. However, rates may not go much higher: Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of REALTORS®, says falling inflation in July may suggest mortgage rates are topping out.

“Although rates continue to fluctuate, recent data suggest that the housing market is stabilizing as it transitions from the surge of activity during the pandemic to a more balanced market,” says Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “Declines in purchase demand continue to diminish while supply remains fairly tight across most markets. The consequence is that house prices likely will continue to rise, but at a slower pace for the rest of the summer.”

The National Association of REALTORS® reported this week that housing affordability decreased precipitously in the second quarter, driven by a sharp rise in rates and double-digit home price increases. The average monthly mortgage payment on a typical existing single-family home (assuming a 20% down payment) climbed to $1,841, marking an increase of $444 compared to the first quarter.

Households are spending 24.3% of their income on mortgage payments, up from 16.9% a year ago, according to NAR data. First-time home buyers are getting hit hardest, typically spending about 37% of their household income on mortgage payments. Most financial experts consider households to be cost-burdened when they spend more than 25% of their income on housing.

Freddie Mac reports the following national averages with mortgage rates for the week ending on Aug. 11:

• 30-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 5.22%, with an average 0.7 point, rising from last week’s 4.99% average. Last year at this time, 30-year rates averaged 2.87%.
• 15-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 4.59%, with an average 0.7 point, increasing from last week’s 4.26% average. A year ago, 15-year rates averaged 2.15%.
• 5-year hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages: averaged 4.43%, with an average 0 point, increasing from last week’s 4.25% average. A year ago, 5-year ARMs averaged 2.44%.

Freddie Mac reports commitment rates along with average points to better reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining a mortgage.

©National Association of REALTORS®Reprinted with permission

NAR’s chief economist shares what now needs to happen to bring down borrowing costs and increase affordability for home buyers.

Inflation eased slightly in July, which could bode well for the housing market in the months ahead, says Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of REALTORS®. Overall, inflation slowed from 9.1% in June to 8.5% in July, but prices for food and rent continued to climb, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index showed Wednesday.

Still, the slight deceleration suggests that consumer price inflation may have peaked, which suggests that mortgage rates also may have peaked, Yun says. The level of inflation “is still high and uncomfortable but may indicate the start of a steady retreat,” Yun adds.

Gasoline prices posted a 7% monthly decline, a significant contributor to the recent moderation in inflation. However, prices remain 44% higher than a year ago and 104% higher than two years ago. Also, the CPI showed that the rising costs of food, up 10.9% in July, continue to hit many Americans’ pocketbooks. That’s the highest increase in food prices since May 1979. Household energy costs were up 20.5%, and furniture costs were up 14.8%.

Rents continued to rise in July, up 6.3% compared to a year prior, the CPI showed. “That is a testament to the ongoing housing shortage,” Yun says.

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But could the worst of sky-high inflation be behind Americans? Yun thinks so. “If there is a sustained decline in gasoline prices and more production of apartments and single-family homes, consumer prices will pull back, encouraging the Federal Reserve policy to be less aggressive,” Yun says. “Mortgage rates will fall.” On Wednesday morning, the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 2.7%. “That should translate into 30-year mortgage rates pulling back to under 5%,” Yun says. “Some recent potential home buyers who were pushed out of the market may now be able to get back in and qualify for a mortgage.”

As inflation appears to have peaked, borrowing costs are starting to stabilize.

Mortgage rates appear to be settling in the 5% range after recent dramatic climbs that shocked home buyers. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.13% this week, down slightly from its 5.22% average a week ago, Freddie Mac reports.

Mortgage rates peaked at 6% in early June, which prompted a pullback in housing demand. However, “home sales may soon stabilize since mortgage rates have fallen to near 5%, thereby giving an additional boost of purchasing power to home buyers,” says Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of REALTORS®.

Inflation appears to have peaked, which has stopped the rapid increase in mortgage rates, says Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “The market continues to absorb the cumulative impact of the large price and rate increases that led to a plunge in affordability,” Khater says. “As a result, over the rest of the year, purchase demand likely will continue to drag, supply will modestly increase and home price growth will decelerate.”

Total mortgage demand fell to its lowest level in 22 years last week, the Mortgage Bankers Association reports. A big contributor is falling refinance applications, as homeowners have less incentive to refinance due to higher rates. Still, mortgage applications to purchase a home are 18% lower than a year ago as more buyers step away due to higher mortgage rates and inflation, the MBA reports.

Freddie Mac reports the following national averages with mortgage rates for the week ending Aug. 18:

• 30-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 5.13%, with an average 0.8 point, falling from last week’s 5.22% average. Last year at this time, 30-year rates averaged 2.86%.
• 15-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 4.55%, with an average 0.7 point, dropping from last week’s 4.59% average. A year ago, 15-year rates averaged 2.16%.
• 5-year hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages: averaged 4.39%, with an average 0.3 point, dropping from last week’s 4.43% average. A year ago, 5-year ARMs averaged 2.43%.

Freddie Mac reports commitment rates along with average points to better reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage.

©National Association of REALTORS®
Reprinted with permission