Let’s be real: last year was a wild one for real estate. New-home sales were killing it—buoyed by a 33% increase in inventory and builders offering more affordable options. On the flip side, existing-home sales took a dive—the lowest since 2008—because supply was about half of pre-pandemic levels.

Even with mortgage rates up, buyers were still battling for those existing homes—about a third of listings had multiple offers. Which meant plenty of folks left disappointed.

But here’s the bright side: those who did manage to buy were happy. A whopping 75% said they’d definitely use the same agent again, and another 15% said “probably” NAR. That’s why referrals are such a big business driver—because agents are earning their stripes. And hey, for many homeowners, it paid off: the typical homeowner’s median net worth is nearly $400,000.

Since 2000, roughly 127 million existing homes have sold. That means around 114 million buyers were satisfied at closing. Of course, not everyone stays happy—some businesses fade away, others pop up, and that’s part of the game. In 2023 alone, over 100,000 new agent‑entrepreneurs joined NAR… and about the same number moved on.

With more than 200,000 brokerages in the U.S., buyers can choose from full-service, fee-for-service, or even go it alone. Despite that variety, some legal folks are stirring things up, calling cooperative compensation a “cartel.” But there’s no evidence of collusion, and let’s be honest—collusion among that many professionals would be nearly impossible. The real losers in that scenario? Consumers—especially first-time and first-generation buyers.

Speaking of first-timers: their share of the market ticked up to 31% in November, compared to 28% in both October 2023 and November 2022. Over the full year, they accounted for about 32% of sales.

Why This Matters

• Inventory is everything. New-home sales thrived when supply improved—existing-home sales faltered when it didn’t.
• Great agents matter. Buyers stick with agents they trust—hence the strong referral culture.
• The market keeps evolving. Agents come and go, and buyers have more ways to transact than ever.
• Competition isn’t shady. Lawsuits claiming “cartel” behavior miss the complexity of the industry.
• First-time buyers are finding ways in. Even amid challenges, they’re still a significant chunk of the market.

Source: REALTOR® Magazine
“What Buyers Truly Need”
National Association of REALTORS®
Reprinted with permission

Strong Underlying Demand

2023 saw existing-home sales hit their lowest levels in nearly three decades, largely because homeowners were locked into ultra-low mortgage rates, housing inventory was scarce, and interest rates were climbing. Yet, when viewed through a broader lens, the picture changes: 4 million existing-home sales in 2023 equaled the total from 1995, despite the U.S. population being notably smaller back then. This reveals a wellspring of pent-up housing demand that could potentially fuel robust sales over the next eight out of ten years.

Emerging Signs of Recovery

The market may already be turning a corner. In February (year unspecified), existing-home sales surged 9.5% month-over-month—adjusted for seasonality and a leap year—backed by a 10% boost in inventory. Still, the Northeast bucked the trend: sales fell by 10%, though prices rose—likely a result of ongoing supply constraints and pursuing multiple-offer scenarios.

The Settlement’s Role: A Wildcard

A court‑pending settlement—aimed at changing how buyers and sellers approach agent compensation—adds a wildcard element to the outlook. The proposal would retain consumer choice by allowing compensation off‑MLS while encouraging cooperative agreements between listing and buyer brokers. Its full impact remains uncertain, but NAR anticipates that if listing agents effectively communicate the benefits of cooperation (like attracting more buyers), sellers may continue to see value in such arrangements—especially for first-time, underrepresented, or veteran homebuyers

A Glimpse Into the Future

• Market Momentum is Building
  With historical demand and inventory gains combining, the potential is there for a sustained rise in home sales.
• Regional Variability Will Persist
  Gains won’t be uniform—Northern markets like the Northeast might still lag due to supply issues and stronger competition.
• Settlement Could Reshape Agent Engagement
  If embraced, the new commission structure might empower buyers while keeping cooperative brokerage models viable—especially if agents highlight clear value.

Source: REALTOR® Magazine
“What Will the Future Bring?”
National Association of REALTORS®
Reprinted with permission

In the current real estate landscape, while new-home builders recorded strong activity—posting roughly 40% more inventory in 2023 than in 2019—existing-home sellers have sharply curtailed listings. Established neighborhoods witnessed a 40% drop in existing-home inventory over the same period. This supply squeeze has fueled multiple-offer scenarios and propelled prices to unprecedented levels.

Inventory Trends: A Glimmer of Hope for Buyers

Recent data hints at a softening in the market: this spring saw a 15% uptick in listings compared to the same timeframe last year. Nonetheless, elevated mortgage rates are still dampening affordability, thwarting any immediate rebound in sales.

On the economic front, a welcome slowdown in inflation—from a two-year high of 9% down to 3.3% in May—may nudge the Federal Reserve toward a less restrictive monetary policy stance, potentially easing borrowing conditions over time.

Addressing the Role of Institutional Buyers

Some states are weighing policy interventions to safeguard housing for owner-occupants rather than large-scale, Wall-Street–backed investors. Proposed measures include an excise tax or barring interest-expense deductions for institutional buyers—specifically those acquiring 200 or more single-family rentals.

Navigating the Renter vs. Owner Dynamic

Acknowledging that not everyone aspires—or is able—to own a home, Yun emphasizes the long-term risks of a shifting renter-majority society. Such a trend could lead to populist housing policies—like rent control or eviction moratoria—even when renters fall behind on payments. Instead, he recommends more constructive solutions, such as rental assistance programs—drawing a parallel to how food stamps address hunger more effectively than price controls.

He cautions against following the path of countries like Venezuela, where such heavy-handed interventions have exacerbated economic turmoil.

Record-Setting Prices

As of May, the median existing-home price across all housing categories reached $419,300, marking an all-time high and a 5.8% year-over-year increase from $396,500. Price gains were consistent across all four U.S. regions.

Key Takeaways

• Sharp contrast in inventory: New listings up 40%, existing-home listings down 40% since 2019.
• Listings on the rise: A modest 15% increase this spring notes a potential shift—but mortgage rates remain an obstacle.
• Policy tools under discussion: Targeted taxation and disincentives aimed at institutional investors could help rebalance ownership.
• Policy philosophy matters: Aid (like rental subsidies) trumps restrictive mandates (like rent control) for long-term stability.
• Home prices aren’t easing: May’s median price hit a record high with gains nationwide.

Source: REALTOR® Magazine
“On Inventory and Policy”
National Association of REALTORS®
Reprinted with permission

Inventory Is Rising—but Still Below Pre-COVID Levels

Homebuyers are starting to breathe easier as housing supply begins to recover. Listings are up nearly 20% compared to last fall—great news for buyers. Still, overall inventory remains about one-third below the levels seen before the pandemic.

Why the uptick? Life and career changes are prompting more homeowners to list. And as time passes, more inventory naturally comes onto the market.

Lower Rates Bring Renewed Affordability

Thanks to falling long-term bond yields—partly driven by expectations of six to eight Fed rate cuts between September 2024 and well into 2025—mortgage rates have trended downward. The 30-year fixed rate has dropped from the high 7% range in spring to the low 6% range by fall, translating into savings of around $300 per month for the typical borrower.

This trend is unfolding independent of the Fed’s moves; bond markets are pricing in multiple expected rate reductions. No matter who occupies the White House in 2025, Americans could benefit from lower borrowing costs.

Politics May Surprisingly Fuel More Home Listings

A fascinating finding from The Journal of Finance: homeowners are 4% more likely to put their houses up for sale if a neighbor with differing political views moves in. Could the heightened political climate be nudging more listings forward? It’s an intriguing possibility.

First-Time Buyers Making a Comeback

First-time buyers made up just 26% of home purchases in August 2024—tying a low not seen since November 2021. This is a slight dip from 29% in July 2024 and August 2023.

What This Means for First-Time Buyers

• More Listings, More Options: Inventory is finally rebounding—giving first-time buyers more homes to choose from, even though it’s not back to pre-pandemic levels just yet.
• Lower Rates, Better Buying Power: As borrowing costs dip, first-timers stand to gain significantly—especially on monthly affordability.
• Subtle Social Shifts at Play: Believe it or not, political differences between neighbors may be quietly influencing homeowners to list. That could work in favor of buyers waiting on the sidelines.
• A Long-Awaited Opportunity: With affordability improving and more listings emerging, first-time buyers might find now to be the perfect time to step in.

If you’re a first-time buyer—or working with one—this evolving landscape is worth watching closely. More homes, better rates, and shifting social cues are creating a rare combination of opportunity.

Would you like help interpreting local inventory trends, mortgage rate comparisons, or first-time buyer incentives? I’d be happy to assist!

Source: REALTOR® Magazine
“Retreat for First Timers”
National Association of REALTORS®
Reprinted with permission

After what feels like an eternity of economic uncertainty, rising interest rates, and sky-high home prices, we finally have some good news to share: the real estate market is showing signs of real, sustainable improvement. Yes, things are looking up—and not just a little.

If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the right time to buy or sell, or if you’re a real estate professional trying to read the tea leaves, here’s what you need to know about what’s shifting—and why there’s real cause for optimism.

1. Mortgage Rates Are Easing (Finally)

Let’s be honest—mortgage rates have been the main villain in the housing story over the past two years. As the Fed tried to tame inflation, interest rates skyrocketed, pushing the cost of borrowing through the roof and sidelining millions of would-be buyers.

But now? We’re seeing a notable cooling.

The Fed has signaled a pause in rate hikes, and even hinted at potential cuts depending on how the economy performs. As a result, mortgage rates have started to trickle downward. While we’re not back to the ultra-low rates of the pandemic era (and we may never be), today’s numbers are far more manageable—and buyers are noticing.

2. Home Equity Is Holding Strong

One of the biggest surprises in this whole market slowdown has been how resilient home prices have remained. Despite fewer transactions, values haven’t fallen off a cliff. In fact, many homeowners have gained equity thanks to tight inventory and regional growth.

That’s great news for sellers who worried they’d missed the market peak. If you’re sitting on equity, you’re in a strong position to upgrade, downsize, or even tap into your home’s value for other investments.

3. Inventory Is (Slowly) Rebuilding

Inventory has been the Achilles’ heel of this housing market. There simply haven’t been enough homes to meet demand. That’s starting to change.

Builders are getting back to work, and more homeowners are warming up to the idea of listing. As inventory increases, we’ll see a healthier balance between buyers and sellers—less frenzied competition, more negotiating power, and better opportunities all around.

4. Commercial Real Estate Is Adapting—and Innovating

It’s not just the residential market that’s seeing a shift. Commercial real estate—particularly office space—has been through a reckoning since the rise of remote work. But instead of collapsing, the sector is adapting.

We’re seeing creative reuse of space, more flexible leasing terms, and growth in areas like industrial, multifamily, and mixed-use development. Forward-thinking investors are finding ways to pivot and profit in this new landscape.

5. Policy and Regulation Are Playing a Role

Housing affordability is top of mind for policymakers, and there’s momentum behind several legislative efforts aimed at addressing supply and affordability. From zoning reforms to first-time homebuyer incentives, there’s hope that the next few years will bring meaningful support for both buyers and builders.

So, What Does This Mean for You?

If you’re a buyer, it may be time to re-engage. With mortgage rates dipping and more homes coming on the market, you’ll have more choices—and potentially better deals.

If you’re a seller, you haven’t missed your window. Equity is high, demand is steady, and with the right strategy, you can still command a great price.

If you’re a real estate pro, this is your moment to educate, advise, and lead. Clients need trustworthy guidance now more than ever.

Bottom Line: There’s Light at the End of the Tunnel

While we’re not claiming a full-blown boom is upon us, the indicators are clear: the worst of the housing crunch may be behind us. The next chapter in real estate won’t look exactly like the last one—and that’s a good thing.

With cautious optimism and a proactive mindset, buyers, sellers, and professionals can all find opportunities in the shifting landscape. Things are indeed looking up.

Want to explore your options in this evolving market? Reach out—we’d love to help you navigate your next move.

Source: REALTOR® Magazine
“Things Are Looking Up”
National Association of REALTORS®
Reprinted with permission

Housing Market Update: A Little Spring Bump in Home Contracts 🌱🏡

June 26, 2025 — It looks like the spring housing market finally found a bit of its footing. After a choppy few months, pending home sales ticked up 1.8% in May, giving buyers, sellers, and real estate pros alike a small reason to smile. That’s also 1.1% higher than this time last year, so we’re starting to see some positive momentum.

If you’ve been following the ups and downs lately, you’ll remember that April was rough—with contract signings dropping 6.3%—so May’s bounce is a welcome change.

What’s Driving the Shift?

According to Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, a few things are helping stabilize the market:

• Steady job growth
• Higher incomes
• And most importantly: mortgage rates that are still bouncing around, making buyers extra cautious.

Still, there’s hope. If rates ease up a bit in the second half of the year, we could see a stronger finish to 2025. For reference, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.77% the last week of June—not exactly low, but not panic-inducing either.

Bonus: Existing-home sales were up slightly in May too—by 0.8%, the first increase since February.

What’s Happening Around the Country?

The picture varies depending on where you are. Here’s a quick regional breakdown:

• 🧭 Northeast: A slight boost in activity—pending sales rose 2.1% from April. But with tight inventory, over 25% of homes are still selling above asking. Year-over-year, they’re down just 0.5%.
• 🌽 Midwest: Pretty flat month to month (+0.3%), but a modest 2.6% improvement compared to last year.
• ☀️ South: Contracts rose 1.0% in May and 2.0% year over year. Inventory is growing, which gives buyers a bit more wiggle room when negotiating.
• 🌄 West: This region saw the biggest jump—up 6.0% from April—but still slightly behind last year (down 1.2%). Inventory gains are helping, especially in places that were red-hot just a couple years ago.

Bottom Line

✅ Buyers are still out there—just more price- and rate-sensitive than before.
✅ Inventory is improving (up 20% from last year!), especially in the South and West.
✅ If mortgage rates dip later this year, expect more activity to follow.

So while it wasn’t the busiest spring ever, things are heading in the right direction—and that’s something we can all feel good about.

Source: REALTOR® Magazine
“Contract Signings Ticked Up Slightly, Capping Off a Sluggish Spring”
National Association of REALTORS®
Reprinted with permission