The number of homes for sale is growing in some markets and that may be the main factor behind the latest rise in mortgage applications, economists say. Mortgage applications for both home purchases and refinancing increased 2.5 percent last week on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported Wednesday. The rise was fueled entirely by an uptick in home purchase applications. 

Mortgage applications for home purchases surged 7 percent in the week and are now 8 percent higher than a year ago, the MBA reports. Abounding housing shortages have mostly kept a lid on any notable increases in home sales this summer, but that gradually may be changing.

“Even though inventories continue to decline, they are doing so at a slower pace,” says Danielle Hale, chief economist at realtor.com®. “In other words, while buyers continue to see fewer homes available for sale, the decline was smaller than what we’ve seen in previous months. Before we see inventories increase, we need to see them slow, and the data has shown four months of deceleration (smaller year-over-year declines).”

Buyer demand continues to be strong from a strengthening job market, says Mike Fratantoni, the MBA’s chief economist.

Despite last week’s uptick, mortgage applications remain 4.3 percent lower than a year ago. Most of that is due to a plunge in the number of borrowers who are refinancing. Mortgage rates are higher than a year ago, which is erasing the incentive for most homeowners to refinance. Mortgage applications to refinance a home loan last week dropped 4 percent and are now at their lowest level since December 2000.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.76 percent last week, down from 4.79 percent the week prior, the MBA reports. Mortgage rates remain elevated compared to last year but the increases have been minimal this summer, so far.

If your clients are wavering on whether to buy a home, there are several reasons they may want to get more serious about their real estate search, according to MagnifyMoney, a personal finance website. Most importantly, mortgage rates remain historically low—but that isn’t expected to last. They’ve been rising steadily, but rates for the current 30-year fixed-rate mortgage are still well below 5 percent, compared to nearly 19 percent In 1981. “The housing market has been on pretty solid footing now for a number of years, and a lot of that is due to pretty affordable mortgage rates,” says Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, a real estate professor at Columbia Business School. In a recent Reuters poll, 45 housing analysts predict that by the end of 2019, the average rate for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage likely will be above 5 percent. So buyers who lock in a rate this year likely will have lower borrowing costs.

Also, escalating home prices aren’t expected to let up anytime soon. According to the Reuters poll, home values in the 20 largest metro areas are expected to increase by another 5.7 percent before the end of the year. The National Association of REALTORS® predicts growth in home prices to continue in the coming years, but year-over-year growth likely will slow to 3 percent or 5 percent. “Home ownership is long-term prospect,” says Paul Bishop, NAR’s vice president of research. “So as long as prices continue to increase at even a modest pace over the next four, five, eight, 10 years, then that equity does build up, in some cases, to quite a substantial part of someone’s net worth.”

Home shoppers who are holding out for more inventory may need to accept that the waiting game likely won’t be successful. At the end of May, there were 1.85 million existing homes for sale, including single-family homes, condos, town homes, and co-ops. That is 6.1 percent lower than a year ago, according to NAR. Construction is on the rise but new developments are only accounting for about 2 percent of the market, says Van Nieuwerburgh, adding that “we’re not building enough to alleviate those shortages.”

While there are plenty of reasons why buying makes sense now, housing analysts are quick to point out that consumers shouldn’t take the plunge if they’re not ready financially or personally for the commitment. Prospective buyers need to consider financial security, their location, and their job situation, says Bishop. “Ultimately, you need to ask yourself: Are you likely to be in a particular location long enough that homeownership makes sense?” he says.

The month of May saw a record number of new-home purchases. Sales of newly built single-family homes increased 6.7 percent in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 689,000 units, the Commerce Department reported Monday. It marks the highest number of new-home sales of the year and the second highest in sales since the Great Recession.

“Sales numbers continue to grow, spurred on by rising home equity, job growth, and reports of a greater number of millennials entering the single-family housing market,” says Randy Noel, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders.

The inventory of new homes for sale was 299,000 in May—a 5.2-month supply at the current sales pace. The median sales price for a new home last month was $313,000.

“We saw a shift to more moderately priced home sales this month, which is an encouraging sign for newcomers to the market,” says Michael Neal, the NAHB’s senior economist. “Since the end of the Great Recession, inventory has tracked the pace of sales growth. While we expect continued gains in single-family housing production, inventory may be partially constrained by ongoing price increases for lumber and other construction materials.”

New-home sales posted the largest increase in the South last month, rising 17.9 percent month over month and reaching a post-recession high. Sales remained unchanged in the Midwest, while sales fell 10 percent in the Northeast and 8.7 percent in the West.