A recent decline in lumber prices is helping to mitigate building costs, but that effect is being offset by numerous increases in other building materials that are surpassing records. Home building materials have climbed by up to 19% over the past year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Producer Price Index.

The building materials that have seen the largest increases so far in 2021, according to the National Association of Home Builders’ Eye on Housing blog, include:

• Steel mill products
• Building paper and building board mill products
• Asphalt
• Plastic water pipe
• Fertilizer materials
• Laminated veneer lumber
• Thermoplastic resins and plastics materials
• Structural metal joists and concrete reinforcing bars
• Wood window and door frames
• Copper pipe and tube

Source: National Association of Home Builders

The price change in steel mill products has been most notable, climbing 81% year over year. That follows an 11% increase in 2020.

Drop in Lumber Prices Could Save $40K Per Home, But…

The median sales price of a new home in July was $390,500, an 18.4% increase compared to a year earlier, according to the Commerce Department. Builders say the higher prices are due to the increases in development costs, including materials, that are being passed along to home buyers.

Real estate brokerages and associations with 100 or more employees are likely to be affected under the new emergency order requiring employees to be fully vaccinated against the coronavirus. President Joe Biden on Thursday announced a mandate for COVID-19 vaccines said to affect more than 80 million in the workforce.

Under the mandate, employers with 100 or more employees must ensure their workforce is fully vaccinated or require any workers who remain unvaccinated to produce a negative test result on at least a weekly basis before coming to work. The mandate will also require employers to provide paid time off to allow workers to get vaccinated and to recover from any side effects after the shot.

Biden is issuing the new orders through the Department of Labor’s Occupational Safety and Health Administration under an “emergency temporary standard.” OSHA has the power to issue standards when “workers are in grave danger” from dangerous hazards, which some are saying will face legal challenges, according to a report in USA Today.

Some real estate–related companies already have vaccine mandates in place. For example, the brokerage Redfin announced last month that it would require all employees returning to the office to be fully vaccinated. Those who haven’t been fully vaccinated will be required to work from home until infection rates subside. Related Cos., a New York–based real estate firm, is requiring its 4,000 employees to get vaccinated—with at least one shot by Aug. 31—or face the possibility of termination.

Biden also issued a vaccine mandate for most federal government workers as well as workers at nursing home facilities and hospitals who receive Medicare and Medicaid funds. He also called for COVID-19 vaccines to be required to attend sports arenas, large concert halls, and other venues holding large gatherings.

OSHA is expected to issue the rule for the vaccine mandates in the coming weeks, according to the White House. Once the rule is implemented, businesses that don’t comply will face “substantial fines” of up to $14,000, according to a senior administration official quoted by USA Today.

Businesses with fewer than 100 employees are not included in the vaccine mandate.

Read more from the National Association of REALTORS®: COVID-19 Guidance for Workplace Vaccination Policies.

With higher home prices, home buyers also are bringing higher down payments. On average, buyers in the country’s 50 largest metro areas brought $46,283 to closing, according to a new study from LendingTree.

In some areas, average down payments are much higher. For example, in San Jose, Calif., and San Francisco, the average down payment is more than $100,000—the highest in the country. In San Jose, home buyers bring an average of $115,138 or 88% of the median annual household income in the area; in San Francisco, buyers bring an average of $103,016 or 90% of the area’s median household income.

On the other hand, Oklahoma City, New Orleans, and St. Louis have the lowest down payments in the country at $28,267, $29,371, and $29,958, respectively.

Nationwide, down payments on a home amount to about 62% of a given area’s median yearly household income, according to LendingTree.

View the chart below for a breakdown of the average down payments on homes across the 50 largest metros.

Housing equity surged nearly 40% compared to a year ago and is at a record high, according to a new report from Black Knight, Inc. The average mortgage holder now has $173,000 in equity. That marks an increase of $20,000 just from the end of the first quarter, the report notes.

The increase in equity is being driven by surging home values over the last quarter, says Ben Graboske, Black Knight data analytics president. Home prices have jumped nearly 20% from a year earlier and by 7.4% in the second quarter alone, he notes. “This is by far the strongest growth we’ve ever seen,” he says.

The added equity is helping those who are struggling to make their mortgage payments. About 98% of homeowners in forbearance now have at least 10% of equity in their homes, according to Black Knight.

“Such strong equity positions should help limit the volume of distressed inflow into the real estate market as well as provide strong incentive for homeowners to return to making mortgage payments—even if needing to be reduced through modification,” Graboske says.

The housing market is showing some sings of cooling, which may be making more home buyers more optimistic in a competitive market. Thirty-two percent of consumers said in August it’s a good time to buy, up from 28% in July, according to Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey, a survey of 1,000 U.S. adults. That marks the first sign of progress in home buyer sentiment since March.

However, 63% of consumers still say it’s a difficult time to buy. Higher home prices and scant housing stock have had consumers concerned about the housing market. Bidding wars have become frustrating to those who keep losing out.

Mark Palm, Fannie Mae’s vice president and deputy chief economist, said the increase in the “good time to buy” survey’s component is likely to be a reflection of the favorable mortgage rate environment and the growing expectation that home price growth will begin to moderate over the next year.

Also, new listings increased 5% in the 50 largest metros, which could be opening more options to home buyers, according to realtor.com®’s newly released Monthly Housing Report. “Low mortgage rates have motivated home buyers to endure this year’s challenging market and now some buyers are starting to see their persistence pay off,” said Danielle Hale, realtor.com®’s chief economist. “This month, new sellers added more affordable entry-level homes to the market compared to last year, while others began adjusting listing prices to better compete with an uptick in inventory.”

New Listings Jump 5.1%; Price Adjustments Moderate

Meanwhile, sellers are still profiting from the hot housing market. Seventy-three percent of consumers surveyed by Fannie Mae said it’s a good time to sell. They’re seeing higher home appreciation: Median existing-home prices climbed nearly 18% in July over the past year, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.

Here’s a closer look at findings from Fannie Mae’s latest National Housing Survey, reflecting August data:

• 32% of consumers say it’s a good time to buy a home, up from 28% in July.
• 73% of consumers say it’s a good time to sell, down from 75% last month.
• 40% of consumers believe home prices will rise over the next 12 years, down from 46%.
• 53% of consumers believe mortgage rates will decrease over the next year, down from 57%.
• 82% of consumers say they are not concerned about losing their job over the next year, down from 84%.
• 26% of consumers say their household income is significantly higher than it was a year ago, down slightly from 27%. Fifty-nine percent of respondents said their household income is about the same.

Those who live in areas hit by Hurricane Ida will next face the challenge of navigating insurance. Many standard home insurance and home-rental policies don’t cover flood insurance. Flood insurance is usually a separate policy.

About 40% to 50% of the flood damages from Hurricane Ida are covered by insurance, Tom Larsen, insurance solutions principal for CoreLogic, told MarketWatch. He says that does mark an improvement in the percentage of insured compared to other large-scale disasters like hurricanes Harvey and Katrina.

Hurricane Ida continues to batter the U.S., moving up along the Northeast causing storms and catastrophic flooding. New York saw more than three inches of rain per hour fall in Central Park from Ida, prompting flooding in the city. Ida first made landfall on the southeastern coast of Louisiana as a Category 4 storm on Aug. 29. It is tied for the fifth-strongest hurricane ever to hit the U.S. mainland.

CoreLogic has estimated about $27 billion to $40 billion in insured and uninsured losses for residential and commercial properties from Hurricane Ida. More than 90% of those losses are expected to come from Louisiana, where thousands of homes and businesses have been destroyed. Nearly 1 million homes and businesses remain without power in southeast Louisiana, as of Thursday.

“Too many people and too many areas are still unprotected and saw a storm surge and flooding that was devastating,” President Biden said in a press conference on Thursday.

A 2020 survey from Policygenius found that 53% of homeowners mistakenly believe that floods are covered under standard home insurance plans.

Homeowners with federally-backed mortgages are required to purchase flood insurance if they live in an area designated as high-risk for flooding. But renters, homeowners, and those without federally backed mortgages are not required to, as well as those who don’t live in designated high-risk areas.

Flood insurance usually costs about $700 a year, on average, with coverage through the National Flood Insurance Program, according to FEMA.

The National Association of REALTORS® offers a Disaster Preparation Resources page at nar.realtor to help real estate professionals and their clients who have been affected in the hurricane and from flooding damage to find the resources they need.

Mortgage rates remain below 3% for the eighth consecutive week, but economists believe job growth will determine how much longer they’ll likely stay so low. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.87% this week, Freddie Mac reports.

“Job growth seems to be very critical for the following several months as it will indicate when the Fed’s tapering will likely start,” Nadia Evangelou, a senior economist and director of forecasting for the National Association of REALTORS®, writes for the association’s blog. “There is ample talk about the Fed cutting its monthly bond purchases before the end of the year.”

The Fed’s asset purchases have helped keep rates lower than they otherwise would be, Evangelou adds. “Expect mortgage rates to rise further when the Fed will raise interest rates since rising interest rates increase the cost of mortgages,” she notes. But “that won’t likely happen until the economy hits full employment.”

Nearly 1.9 million jobs were added during June and July. However, only 235,000 jobs were added in August. Approximately 17 million have been recovered since lockdown in April 2020, but another 5 million are still needed to reach the country’s prior peak before the pandemic, says Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.

The latest unemployment rate was 5.2% with wages rising by 4.8% over the year, Yun says, however, the consumer price inflation of 5.2% is “eating away at those wage gains.”

Freddie Mac reports the following national averages with mortgage rates for the week ending Sept. 2:

• 30-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 2.87%, with an average 0.6 point, unchanged from last week. Last year at this time, 30-year rates averaged 2.93%.
• 15-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 2.18%, with an average 0.6 point, rising slightly from a 2.17% average last week. A year ago, 15-year rates averaged 2.42%.
• 5-year hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages: averaged 2.43%, with an average 0.3 point, increasing from last week’s 2.42% average. A year ago, 5-year ARMs averaged 2.93%.

Freddie Mac reports average commitment rates along with average points to better reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining a mortgage.