Though weekly changes in borrowing costs are volatile, housing activity is reaching more balanced levels—which is ultimately good for buyers, says Freddie Mac’s chief economist.

Home buyers are having difficulty gauging opportunities to save on a property purchase as mortgage rates become more volatile. The average for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage swung above 5% again this week, clocking in at 5.22%, Freddie Mac reports. Last week, the average for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 4.99%. However, rates may not go much higher: Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of REALTORS®, says falling inflation in July may suggest mortgage rates are topping out.

“Although rates continue to fluctuate, recent data suggest that the housing market is stabilizing as it transitions from the surge of activity during the pandemic to a more balanced market,” says Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “Declines in purchase demand continue to diminish while supply remains fairly tight across most markets. The consequence is that house prices likely will continue to rise, but at a slower pace for the rest of the summer.”

The National Association of REALTORS® reported this week that housing affordability decreased precipitously in the second quarter, driven by a sharp rise in rates and double-digit home price increases. The average monthly mortgage payment on a typical existing single-family home (assuming a 20% down payment) climbed to $1,841, marking an increase of $444 compared to the first quarter.

Households are spending 24.3% of their income on mortgage payments, up from 16.9% a year ago, according to NAR data. First-time home buyers are getting hit hardest, typically spending about 37% of their household income on mortgage payments. Most financial experts consider households to be cost-burdened when they spend more than 25% of their income on housing.

Freddie Mac reports the following national averages with mortgage rates for the week ending on Aug. 11:

• 30-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 5.22%, with an average 0.7 point, rising from last week’s 4.99% average. Last year at this time, 30-year rates averaged 2.87%.
• 15-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 4.59%, with an average 0.7 point, increasing from last week’s 4.26% average. A year ago, 15-year rates averaged 2.15%.
• 5-year hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages: averaged 4.43%, with an average 0 point, increasing from last week’s 4.25% average. A year ago, 5-year ARMs averaged 2.44%.

Freddie Mac reports commitment rates along with average points to better reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining a mortgage.

©National Association of REALTORS®Reprinted with permission

NAR’s chief economist shares what now needs to happen to bring down borrowing costs and increase affordability for home buyers.

Inflation eased slightly in July, which could bode well for the housing market in the months ahead, says Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of REALTORS®. Overall, inflation slowed from 9.1% in June to 8.5% in July, but prices for food and rent continued to climb, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index showed Wednesday.

Still, the slight deceleration suggests that consumer price inflation may have peaked, which suggests that mortgage rates also may have peaked, Yun says. The level of inflation “is still high and uncomfortable but may indicate the start of a steady retreat,” Yun adds.

Gasoline prices posted a 7% monthly decline, a significant contributor to the recent moderation in inflation. However, prices remain 44% higher than a year ago and 104% higher than two years ago. Also, the CPI showed that the rising costs of food, up 10.9% in July, continue to hit many Americans’ pocketbooks. That’s the highest increase in food prices since May 1979. Household energy costs were up 20.5%, and furniture costs were up 14.8%.

Rents continued to rise in July, up 6.3% compared to a year prior, the CPI showed. “That is a testament to the ongoing housing shortage,” Yun says.

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Reprinted with permission

But could the worst of sky-high inflation be behind Americans? Yun thinks so. “If there is a sustained decline in gasoline prices and more production of apartments and single-family homes, consumer prices will pull back, encouraging the Federal Reserve policy to be less aggressive,” Yun says. “Mortgage rates will fall.” On Wednesday morning, the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 2.7%. “That should translate into 30-year mortgage rates pulling back to under 5%,” Yun says. “Some recent potential home buyers who were pushed out of the market may now be able to get back in and qualify for a mortgage.”

As inflation appears to have peaked, borrowing costs are starting to stabilize.

Mortgage rates appear to be settling in the 5% range after recent dramatic climbs that shocked home buyers. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.13% this week, down slightly from its 5.22% average a week ago, Freddie Mac reports.

Mortgage rates peaked at 6% in early June, which prompted a pullback in housing demand. However, “home sales may soon stabilize since mortgage rates have fallen to near 5%, thereby giving an additional boost of purchasing power to home buyers,” says Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of REALTORS®.

Inflation appears to have peaked, which has stopped the rapid increase in mortgage rates, says Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “The market continues to absorb the cumulative impact of the large price and rate increases that led to a plunge in affordability,” Khater says. “As a result, over the rest of the year, purchase demand likely will continue to drag, supply will modestly increase and home price growth will decelerate.”

Total mortgage demand fell to its lowest level in 22 years last week, the Mortgage Bankers Association reports. A big contributor is falling refinance applications, as homeowners have less incentive to refinance due to higher rates. Still, mortgage applications to purchase a home are 18% lower than a year ago as more buyers step away due to higher mortgage rates and inflation, the MBA reports.

Freddie Mac reports the following national averages with mortgage rates for the week ending Aug. 18:

• 30-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 5.13%, with an average 0.8 point, falling from last week’s 5.22% average. Last year at this time, 30-year rates averaged 2.86%.
• 15-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 4.55%, with an average 0.7 point, dropping from last week’s 4.59% average. A year ago, 15-year rates averaged 2.16%.
• 5-year hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages: averaged 4.39%, with an average 0.3 point, dropping from last week’s 4.43% average. A year ago, 5-year ARMs averaged 2.43%.

Freddie Mac reports commitment rates along with average points to better reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage.

©National Association of REALTORS®
Reprinted with permission

Housing affordability hit a 33-year low in June, according to NAR data. But an increase in inventory and stabilizing mortgage rates may stem the tide.

The average monthly mortgage payment jumped 54% year over year in June while the median household income rose only 5.8%, according to the National Association of REALTORS®’ Housing Affordability Index. As home affordability weakened and the median home price shot to a record $413,800 in June, NAR’s index fell to its lowest reading in 33 years. “Home prices have increased at a pace that far exceeds wage gains, especially for low- and middle-income workers,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said recently.

Housing affordability “dramatically tumbled” in the second quarter amid rising mortgage rates and climbing home prices, NAR data shows. Monthly mortgage payments on a typical existing single-family home surged by nearly a third compared to the first quarter and by half compared to a year earlier. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has nearly doubled in that time. Although rates stabilized somewhat this month, they remain significantly higher than a year ago.

The average monthly mortgage payment rose to $1,944 in June from $1,265 a year earlier—a $679 difference, NAR notes. The annual mortgage payment as a percentage of income rose to 25.4%; most financial experts consider housing payments that exceed 25% of income to be unaffordable. “Monthly mortgage payments have soared compared to last year, and rising home prices are not helping affordability conditions,” Michael Hyman, a research data specialist at NAR, notes on the association’s Economists’ Outlook blog. “One good sign for the housing market is a welcome increase in the supply of inventory. Another is that rates recently have cooled, slowing the pace of growing monthly mortgage payments.”

Housing affordability posted double-digit declines in June compared to a year ago in all four major regions of the U.S. The Midwest was the most affordable region, with a median household income of $90,650 but a qualifying income of $68,496 needed to buy a median-priced home in the area. On the other hand, the least affordable region continues to be the West, where the median family income was $98,498 but a qualifying income of $141,552 was needed to purchase a median-priced home. This marks the fourth consecutive month the Western region posted a reading on NAR’s affordability index below 100, which means a family earning the median income in the region can’t afford a median-priced home.

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Pending home sales in July dropped nearly 20% year over year as the housing market continues to slow. But a turnaround is in sight, says Lawrence Yun.

Home buyers continue to recoil from higher mortgage rates and home prices, with pending home sales in July plummeting nearly 20% year over year, according to data from the National Association of REALTORS® released Wednesday. Though summertime is traditionally busy for the real estate market, contract signings across all regions of the country were down by double-digit percentages annually, the data shows. The West has seen the most market contraction, with pending home sales down 30%.

Pending home sales have fallen in eight of the last nine months as the market retreats from its pandemic highs. Still, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun says a turnaround is likely. “In terms of the current housing cycle, we may be at or close to the bottom in contract signings,” he says. “This month’s very modest decline reflects the recent retreat in mortgage rates. Inventories are growing for homes in the upper price ranges, but limited supply at the lower price points is hindering transaction activity.”

Affordability is taking a big hit, too, plunging in June to its lowest level since 1989, NAR reports. Rising mortgage rates have made home loans more expensive, adding to the cost of homeownership. The typical monthly mortgage payment was nearly $2,000 in June, up 54%—or $679—compared to just one year ago. “Home prices are still rising by double-digit percentages year over year, but annual price appreciation should moderate to the typical rate of 5% by the end of this year and into 2023,” Yun says. “With mortgage rates expected to stabilize near 6% alongside steady job creation, home sales should start to rise by early next year.”

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Reprinted with permission

If borrowing costs get just a little higher, the average household may be blocked from homeownership, warns an NAR economist.

Mortgage rates continued inching up this week, nearing a threshold that would bring the average American household to a financial tipping point, warns Nadia Evangelou, senior economist and director of forecasting for the National Association of REALTORS®.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage jumped to an average of 5.66%, Freddie Mac reported Thursday. A 5.7% mortgage rate would force the typical household to spend over 25% of its annual income on a median-priced home, Evangelou notes on the Economists’ Outlook blog. Most financial experts consider homeowners to be “house burdened” at that level.

There’s a strong likelihood that mortgage rates move even higher, Evangelou writes, noting that the recent rise in the 10-year Treasury yield is influencing borrowing costs. Mortgage rates are nearly double what they were a year ago.

However, relief may be on the horizon for buyers. Fannie Mae predicted this week that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will drop to an average of 4.5% in 2023. Still, economists say home buyers who can afford to purchase now are better off moving forward rather than waiting for lower mortgage rates. Even if borrowing costs drop next year, high home prices likely will remain a challenge, Keith Gumbinger, vice president of the research firm HSH, recently told CNBC.

Freddie Mac reported the following national averages with mortgage rates for the week ending Sept. 1:

• 30-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 5.66%, with an average 0.8 point, increasing from last week’s 5.55% average. Last year at this time, 30-year rates averaged 2.87%.
• 15-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 4.98%, with an average 0.8 point, rising from last week’s 4.85% average. A year ago, 15-year rates averaged 2.18%.
• 5-year hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages: averaged 4.51%, with an average 0.4 point, increasing from last week’s 4.36% average. A year ago, 5-year ARMs averaged 2.43%.

Freddie Mac reports commitment rates along with average points to better reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage.

©National Association of REALTORS®
Reprinted with permission