{"id":25298,"date":"2025-10-13T13:44:07","date_gmt":"2025-10-13T13:44:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.anthonydidonato.net\/wordpress\/?p=25298"},"modified":"2025-10-13T13:44:07","modified_gmt":"2025-10-13T13:44:07","slug":"are-contract-signings-at-the-bottom-what-2025-data-suggests-for-the-housing-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.anthonydidonato.net\/wordpress\/are-contract-signings-at-the-bottom-what-2025-data-suggests-for-the-housing-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Are Contract Signings at the Bottom? What 2025 Data Suggests for the Housing Market"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

In recent years, the U.S. housing market has faced headwinds: rising mortgage rates, affordability constraints, and cautious buyers. The National Association of REALTORS\u00ae (NAR) has long tracked pending home sales (i.e. contract signings)<\/strong> as a key indicator of buyer demand, and signs from 2025 suggest we may be in the early phases of stabilization \u2014 or even a modest rebound.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Below is a fresh look at where contract signings stand in 2025, what\u2019s influencing them, and what that means for buyers, sellers, and real estate professionals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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What Happened Before: A Quick Recap<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Back in 2022, contract signings saw sharp year\u2011over\u2011year declines \u2014 in one instance, falling nearly 20% in July compared to 2021. The market was reacting to significantly higher mortgage rates and pressured affordability. (Original NAR analysis: \u201cpending home sales down nearly 20\u202f% year over year\u201d) <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The NAR chief economist at the time argued that contracting declines and softer rate movements might mean the market was nearing a bottom. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since then, many real estate observers have watched closely: Has the bottom been reached? Are we looking at a slow crawl upward \u2014 or continued volatility?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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What 2025 Is Telling Us: Indicators, Data & Trends<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While we don\u2019t yet have a full year\u2019s data, several signs suggest contract signings are no longer in freefall. Below are key observations and indicators as of mid\u20112025:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. Stabilized Mortgage Rates (Relative to 2022\u20132023 Highs)<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Mortgage interest rates peaked in recent cycles, putting heavy pressure on buyer budgets. But into 2025, rates have moderated somewhat, which has helped ease the burden on buyers. The \u201cceiling\u201d effect means further large increases are less likely, providing more confidence to some hesitant buyers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. Affordability Still a Constraint \u2014 but Easing Slightly<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Home prices remain high in many markets, but some cooling has occurred. Meanwhile, wage gains and inflation moderation are nudging affordability back into more workable ranges in certain regions. That said, affordability is still tighter than pre\u2011pandemic norms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. Regional and Price\u2011Segment Divergence<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

High-end, luxury homes still face slower demand and longer listing times, whereas mid\u2011price and entry\u2011level homes are experiencing more resilience. In many metro areas, modest single-family homes and affordable condos are showing stronger absorption than premium properties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4. Growing Inventory in Some Markets<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Some markets are seeing inventory increases \u2014 especially in higher price bands. That gives buyers more choices, but also pushes sellers to price and condition more competitively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

5. Indicator of Contract Signings<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Preliminary reports in 2025 show that contract activity is flat to slightly up in many markets compared to 2024’s lows. That suggests we may have passed the trough of contract declines. Some months are showing small positive year-over-year gains in pending sales in key metro areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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What It Means for Buyers (2025 Edition)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

If you’re a buyer evaluating timing, here\u2019s what the 2025 landscape suggests:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2705 More Negotiating Power<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

With more listings relative to buyers (especially in upper price tiers), buyers may see better price concessions, more seller credits, or more favorable contingencies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2705 Less Risk of Further Sharp Declines<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

While nothing is guaranteed, many indicators point to a market that has moderated, making drastic downward price swings less likely in many areas (barring shocks).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2705 Importance of Speed & Preparation<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

In markets where inventory is still lean, well-prepared buyers (pre\u2011approved financing, ready inspections, decisive offers) will be more competitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2705 Watch Local Variation<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

National trends matter \u2014 but real estate is local. In some markets, contracts are climbing; in others, they may still lag. Always check your city or county\u2019s recent pending sale trends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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What Sellers and Agents Should Be Aware Of in 2025<\/h2>\n\n\n\n